2011 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS RESULTS
1- BEST PICTURE - 12 POINTS AC TC DH MJ AM LM BS JS NS AS KS
A- “Black Swan”   
B- “The Fighter”
C- “Inception”
D- “The Kids Are All Right” 
E- “The King's Speech 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
F- “127 Hours
G- “The Social Network X X X
H- “Toy Story 3
I- “True Grit
J- “Winter's Bone
2- BEST ACTOR - 10 POINTS
A- Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” X
B- Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” X
C- Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Netw.
D- Colin Firth in “The King's Speech” 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
E- James Franco in “127 Hours”
   
3- BEST ACTRESS - 10 POINTS  
  A- Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” X X
B-  Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” X
C- Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
D- Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
E- Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
4- SUPPORTING ACTOR - 7 POINTS
A- Christian Bale in “The Fighter” 7 7 7 7 7 7
B- John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”  
C- Jeremy Renner in “The Town” X
D- Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
E- Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech” X X X X
5- SUPPORTING ACTRESS - 7 POINTS
A- Amy Adams in “The Fighter” X X
B- Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Sp,  X
C-  Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” 7 7 7 7 7
D-  Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” X X X
E-  Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
AC TC DH MJ AM LM BS JS NS AS KS
   
6- BEST DIRECTOR - 7 POINTS
A-  “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky X X
B- “The Fighter” David O. Russell
C- “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper 7 7 7 7
D- “The Social Network” David Fincher X X X X X
E- “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
 
AC TC DH MJ AM LM BS JS NS AS KS
7- BEST SOUND (SOUND MIXING) - 3 POINTS
A- “Inception 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
B- “The King's Speech X X X
C- “Salt
D- “The Social Networ
E- “True Grit X
8- COSTUME DESIGN - 3 POINTS
A- “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood 3 3 3 3 3   3
B- “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi X
C- “The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan X X X X
D-  “The Tempest” Sandy Powell
E- “True Grit” Mary Zophres
9- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - 3 POINTS
A- “Alice in Wonderland
B- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 X X
C- “Hereafter”
D- “Inception 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
E- “Iron Man 2
10- CINEMATOGRAPHY - 3 POINTS
A- “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique X X X
B- “Inception” Wally Pfister 3 X
C- “The King's Speech” Danny Cohen X
D- “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth  
E- “True Grit” Roger Deakins X X X X X
AC TC DH MJ AM LM JS NS AS KS
11- ORIGINAL SCORE - 3 POINTS
A-  “How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell X
B- “Inception” Hans Zimmer
C- “The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat X X
D- “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman X
E- “The Social Network 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
AC TC DH MJ AM LM JS NS AS KS
12- SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED) - 3 POINTS.
A- “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy X
B- “The Social Network 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
C- “Toy Story 3 X
D- “True Grit
E- “Winter's Bone
13- SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL) - 3 POINTS
A- “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
B- “The Fighter X  
C- “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
D- “The Kids Are All Right X X X X  
E- “The King's Speech 3 3 3 3 3 3
14- ANIMATED FILM - 3 POINTS
A- How to Train Your Dragon
B- “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet X
C- “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total Score 29 37 46 44 28 55 48 61 64 60 64
Final Place 10 9 7 8 11 5 6 3 1 4 2
AC TC DH MJ AM LM BS JS NS AS KS
TIE BREAKERS - predict # of Oscars below movies will win:
1ST TIE BREAKER: WON
The King's Speech - 12 nominations  4 5 7 6 8 8 5 4 8 5 6 8
2ND TIE BREAKER:
True Grit - 10 nominations  0 3 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 1 2 1
3RD TIE BREAKER:
Social Network - 8 nominations 3 4 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 4 3 2
Deadline:  Submit by February  25, 2010 (Academy Awards on February 27, 2011)
                                RESULTS FOR 2000 THROUGH 2011   CUM STATS
  20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20- 20- 20-
11 10  09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 Yrs Total Avg Cum
PREDICTORS PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL Pred Places Place PL**
AM Al Manzey 11 10 10 23 23 17 18 12 8 124 15.50 19
AC Amy Carman 10 1 10 10.00
AS Amy Stockard 4 3 1 3 7 4 2 2 12 5 16 11 59 5.36 4
Andrew Coates 13 19 2 32 16.00
AH Andrew Hazelwood 9 6 10 4 9 5 5 18 17 3 5 11 91 8.27 7
Andy Corn 6 1 6 6.00
Anne Marie Benson 5 5 2 10 5.00
Bob Scholl 8 9 18 18 14 15 6 82 13.67 17
BS Bonnie Shaffstall 6 11 9 12 15 24 24 7 101 14.43 18
Carman, Nolie 11 1 11 11.00
Christina Rich 19 19 2 38 19.00  
Cindy Nichols 13 13 8 3 34 11.33 15
DH Dick Hammerstrom 7 8 13 11 12 12 15 15 7 2 8 11 110 10.00 12
Gale Slagle 12 15 22 22 4 71 17.75 20
IM 6 1 6 6.00
Janet Ungaro 25 25 2 50 25.00
Jeff Robinette 26 26 8 11 4 71 17.75 21
JeS Jerry Slagle 5 5 5 6 3 3 4 6 2 9 10 48 4.80 3
Jim Slagle 5 1 5 5.00
JoS John Slagle 3 1 2 6 1 3 1 1 1 4 10 23 2.30 1
Jon Stapp 10 10 9 3 29 9.67 11
KS KristIn Stoub 2 1 7 1 8 1 4 4 9 16 6 11 12 70 5.83 5
JM Luis Melo 5 12 15 8 7 7 15 11 9 1 10 90 9.00 9
Mary Juarez 5 14 2 19 9.50
MS Melissa Ungaro Slagle 3 4 3 2 17 17 5 12 8 63 7.88 6
Mickey Hazelwood 15 1 15 15.00
MJ Mike Juarez 8 14 9 13 11 16 16 10 10 7 3 11 117 10.64 13
NS Nelson Slagle 1 4 4 6 2 5 8 8 2 1 1 5 12 47 3.92 2
Nikki Barber 12 12 2 24 12.00
Phil Hensley 10 16 9 9 16 14 4 12 8 90 11.25 14
Randy Lang 14 14 2 28 14.00
Randy Langs 4 daughters 13 1 13 13.00
SV Scott VanCamp 2 11 11 11 13 10 2 7 60 8.57 8
Stephanie Poff 20 20 2 40 20.00
Tammy Slagle 11 7 14 14 3 3 13 10 8 75 9.38 10
TC Ted Carman 9 1 9 9.00
Tina Nguyen 7 1 7 7.00
VH Virginia Gaeta Hazlewood 7 8 6 10 21 21 6 73 12.17 16
Wayne Geiser 13 1 13 13.00
**    Need to have predicted 3 times to qualify for cum ranking
    NELSON SLAGLE EDGES KRISTIN STOUB ON TIE BREAKER TO WIN 2011 PREDICTIONS
      Nelson Slagle and Kristin predicted all 14 categories the same but Nelson guessed 5 on the
number of Oscars King's Speech would win and Kristin guessed 8.  Nelson was closest on the tie
breaker to win his 3rd Academy Award Predictions but first since 2003.  Nelson (3), Kristin 
(2.5) and John (4.5) Slagle have won 10 of the last 11 years.
     It was apparent half way through the night that either Nelson or Luis Melo would win.  If any movie
other than King's Speech would have won best picture, Luis would have been the winner as he had
a 3 point lead going into the last category.  
     Bonnie Shaffstall correctly predicted King's Speech to win 4 Oscars.  Nelson, John and Kristin were
closest to True Grit's 0 Oscars and Ted Carman, Dick Hammerstrom, Luis and Amy Stockard all
correctly predicted 3 Oscars for Social Network.  Luis and Nelson were closest on 3 tie breakers
combined each missing by 3.  Leading Oscar winners were King's Speech and Inception with 4 and
Social Network with 3 but King's Speech dominated major awards.
    Kristin and Nelson have predicted all 12 years.  Amy Stockard and Dick have each predicted the
last 11 years and Mike Juarez has predicted 11 of 12 years and Andrew's streak ended at 11 years.
     The top 5 all time predictors remained the same led by John averaging 2.30 place,  Nelson 2- averaging
3.92 place. Jerry Slagle 3- 4.8 place, Amy Stockard 4-  5.36 place and Kristin Stoub 5- 5.83 place.
   FOUR TIE FOR FIRST ON POINTS, BUT JOHN SLAGLE AND KRISTIN STOUB WIN TIE BREAKER 
     John Slagle, Kristin Stoub, Amy Stockard and Nelson Slagle all scored 71 points as all predicted 11 of 14
categories, missing three 3 point categories.   Nelson was eliminated on the first tie breaker and Amy
dropped out on the 2nd. John and Kristin picked all 14 categories and two tie breakers the same thus ended
tied for 1st.   John (5) and Kristin (3) have won 7 of last 8 years.  The top four finishers this year have won
each of the last 10 prediction contests.
      Only 4 predictors picked Hurt Locker for Best Picture and ended up as the top 4  predictors.
      In categories 2 thru 6 at least 8 predictors correctly picked each category.
In the cum predicts, John Slagle is averaging a finish of 2.22 place to easily beat runner-up, brother Nelson
who averages 4.18 place.  Remaining top 5 are:  Jerry Slagle 4.80, Amy Stockard 5.5 and Kristin Stoub
6.18.  The four of the top five predicting in 2010 were the top 4 finishers.  See cum results above narratives.
     John, Kristin and Amy were closest on # of Oscars Avatar would win with a guess of 4.  Avatar won 3.  
John & Kristin were also closest on # of Oscars Hurt Locker would win with a prediction of 5.  It won 6.
     EDITORIAL
    Something is wrong with the Academy Award voting when a picture that grossed  $2.559 billion world wide (Avatar) to
trounce the previous leader (Titanic with $1.843 Billion and 3rd place Lord of the Rings, The Return of the King at $1.119B)
is defeated for best picture by a movie that grosses $17 million and the 100th highest gross 2009 movie grossed $25 million!
Hurt Locker was also reported to be the least watched Best Picture of all time.
    AMY STOCKARD WINS 2009 ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS WITH PERFECT PREDICTION      
Amy Stockard correctly predicted all 14 categories to win her first Oscar predictions after finishing in the top 4 in four of the last five years. 
John Slagle and Melissa Slagle both missed Best Sound Mixing to finish 2nd and 3rd.  Amy and Nelson both  picked the first  12 categories 
correct and Amy won when Sean Penn won best actor.  Nelson picked Mickey Rourke.     Amy was the first predictor to pick all 14
categories correct since John Slagle in 2005.   Amy broke the streak of 8 straight wins by a  Slagle although Slagles finished in positions 2nd
through 5th.    Bonnie Shaffstall, Jerry Slagle, John Slagle and Kristin Stoub all correctly picked The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to win 3
Oscars.  Gale Slagle was the only predictor to pick 8 Oscars for Slumdog Millionaire.   Thirteen of our 15 predictors correctly picked Slumdog
Millionaire to win Best Picture.  The firsts 7 predictors each picked at least 12 of the 14 categories correctly.       Best Actor and Best Sound
Mixing winners were only picked by 6 winners, making the  toughest categories.  All other categories  were picked by at least 8 predictors.  
Heath Ledger won Best Supporting actor as 14 of 15 correctly picked.      Of the 21 predictors that have predicted at least 3 years the top five
based on average placing are:  John Slagle 1- 2.38, Nelson Slagle 2 4.20, Jerry Slagle 3- 4.80, Amy Stockard 4- 5.78 and Kristin Stoub 5- 6.70. 
See complete results above the narratives on the right side.
                        KRISTIN STOUB EDGES SCOTT VAN CAMP TO WIN 2008 ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS
     Kristin Stoub edged Scott Van Camp 54 to 52 to win her 2nd Academy Awards Predictions in three years.  Scott led when
Marion Cotillard won best actress award but Kristin won three more 3 point categories finally passing Scott on Original Score.
Only 6 points separated the top seven finishers.  Going into Best Picture, only Virginia Hazlewood had a chance to catch
Kristin but needed a win by There Will Be Blood.  Rounding out the top five were Amy Stockard 3- 51, Melissa Slagle 4- 48 and
Jerry Slagle 5- 48 as noted above on 'Final Place' line.. Kristin and John Slagle have now won the last six contests.  This is
Amy Stockard's 3rd 2nd or 3rd place finish in the last 5 years.
     Melissa Slagle, Amy Stockard, Andrew Hazlewood and Dick Hammerstrom correctly picked the first tie breaker as No
Country for Old Men won 4 Oscars.  Kristin Stoub, Melissa Slagle and Jerry Slagle correctly picked There Will Be Blood for 2
Oscars.  
     Eight favorites won in the 14 categories.  No one picked Tilda Swinson to win Best Actress.  Only Virginia Hazlewood and
Scott VanCamp picked Marion Cotillard to win Best Supporting Actress.  Only Mike Juarez picked Bourne Ultimatum to win
Best Sound Mixing.  Only Virginia Hazlewood and Dick Hammerstrom picked Golden Compass to  win Best Visual Effects. 
Only Amy Stockard and Kristin Stoub picked There Will Be Blood to win Best Cinematography.   The only category to be
picked correctly by all 12 predictors was Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor.
     Twelve was the fewest predictors ever tying  the mark set in 2000, the first year of the Oscar Predictions
     Of the 21 predictors that have predicted at least 3 years the top five based on average placing are:  John Slagle 1- 1.67,
Nelson Slagle 2- 3.75, Jerry Slagle 3- 4.13, Amy Stockard 4- 5.86 and Kristin Stoub 5- 6.38.  See complete results above narratives.
                     JOHN SLAGLE WINS 2007 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTION ON 2ND TIE BREAKER, HIS 4TH WIN IN 5 YEARS
     John Slagle and Nelson Slagle had the same predicts through the first tie breaker, thus the contest came down to whether Babel would win one or
two oscars.  Going into Best Picture, John, Nelson and Tammy Slagle had a chance to win.  Tammy wins if The Queen is Best Picture, Nelson
wins if Babel is Best Picture and John wins if any of the other three films won.  This was the 2nd straight contest to be settled by the 2nd tie
breaker and the fourth time in five years that a tiebreaker determined the winner and also the 4th time in the last 5 years that John has won.  I
have been running basketball and football predicts for 40 years and probably another 70 or 80 prediction contests and no one has ever won 4
contests in 5 years.  
     This is the 7th straight contest won by a Slagle and the top 3 finishers were Slagles.  Top five were:  John 64, Nelson 64, Melissa Slagle 61,
Andrew Hazlewood 61 and Jerry Slagle 61.  The top 9 finishers all had the same predictions for the six major (1st 6 categories listed) categories. 
All 15 predictors missed Best Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine).  Only Randy Lang and Tammy Slagle picked Happy Feet to win
the Animated Feature.   Only Virgina and Andrew Hazlewood correctly picked the Cinamatography winner.  Key category was Costume Design
which John and Nelson were the only contendors to get correct  (Marie Antionette).
      The winning score of 64 was the lowest score to win since 2003 when we had fewer categories.   John picked 5 of 6 major categories and 6 of 8
minor categories correct.  Melissa and Randy were the only predictors to correctly guess 2 on number of Oscars Dreamgirls would win. Six
correctly picked one Oscar for Babel.
      The top five predictors that have predicted at least 6 of the 8 years are:  (Avg place in parenthesis)  1- John Slagle (1.83), 2- Nelson Slagle (4.00), C183
3- Jerry Slagle (4.75), 4- Amy Stockard (6.86) and 5- Luis Melo (7.25).
     KRISTEN STOUB DEFEATED MELISSA SLAGLE ON THE 2ND TIE BREAKER TO WIN 2006 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS
     Kristin Stoub and Melissa Slagle had identical predictions including the first tie breaker.  Their only difference was on the 2nd tiebreaker.  Kristin was
perfect on the 2nd tie breaker thus won the 2006 Academy Award predicts.  Kristen broke John Slagle's three year streak of winning the Academy
Award Predicts.  This is the 6th straight year a Slagle family  member won the predicts.  John still added to his record getting the first 5 categories
announced to run his fantastic streak to 29 straight categories predicted correctly over 3 years.   Breaking the streak was sound mixing which Kristin
correctly picked King Kong while John picked Walk the Line.  That was their only difference on the 14 Oscar categories.  Six of the top 7 predictors
were Slagles.  This the 3rd straight year that a tie breaker was needed to determine the winner.  
     Broadback Mountain won 3 Oscars tieng for the most.  This is the first time in 60 years that the leader only had 3 Oscars. Andrew Hazelwood was 
the only predictor to correctly predict 3 Oscars for Broadback Mountain.  Kristen, Nelson and Jerry Slagle correctly picked 1 Oscar for Walk the Line.  
     Congrats to Kristin for winning and John for winning 3 straight Academy Award predictions and picking 29 straight categories correctly over three years.  
     The leading predictors that have predicted at least 3 years are: John Slagle (averages 2nd place),  Nelson Slagle averaging 4.3 place, Jerry Slagle 
averaging 4.7 place, Amy Stockard averaging 6.8 place and Luis Melo averaging 8.3 places.
          JOHN SLAGLE GOES 14 FOR 14 TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT YEAR
      John Slagle predicted all 14 categories to finish with 77 points and beat Melissa Slagle by 12 points.  Amazingly, after picking the first 13
categories correctly, he still needed to get best picture correct to win the predicts.  Amy Stockard would have won if Aviator won best picture.  
The top 5 predictors were:  John Slagle 77, Melissa Slagle 65, Nikki Barber 61, Scott Van Camp 60 and Virginia Gaeta & Cindy Van Camp 58.
John Slagle has won three years in a row.  Last year John picked 12 of 14 catergoies correctly.  John has now picked 23    traight categories correctly. straight catergories correctly.
                      JOHN SLAGLE REPEATS AS ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTION WINNER ON TIEBREAKER IN 2004
John Slagle, Amy Stockard and Jerry Slagle all tied with 71 points in the Academy Awards Predictions.  John won the tie breaker with 9
predicted Academy Award Oscars for Lord of the Ring (it won 11 of 11 nominations!).  All three predictors set an all time scoring record
(that may never be broken) and predicted 12 of 14 categories correctly. John also was closest on the tie breaker as both he and Nikki
Barber guessed 9, and closest on the 2nd tie breaker as he correctly guessed 0 for Seabiscuit Oscars tying with Luis Melo.  Thus John
made a complete sweep of the 2004 predicts.   Nelson predicted a record 13 of 14 categories correctly, but missed one of the major
categories (Best Actor) and finished 8th (might be a protest filed regarding the scoring for each category!!).  John, Amy and Jerry predicted
all six major categories correctly, but missed two minor categories.
      We have predicted 14 categories for the last 3 years and the record number of points was by Nelson in 2002 with 51 and the record
categories correctly predicted was 9 each of the last two years by Nelson and John.  Both scoring records were obliterated in 2004.  
      John is the leading predictor who has predicted at least 3 years, finishing 4th, 1st and 1st.  Of the 5 year predictors, Nelson leads 
totaling 17 places,  followed by Jerry Slagle totaling 24 places and Luis Melo totatling 43 places.  
      Trophy presentation and Academy Award pictures will be available in a few days.  
                                     JOHN SLAGLE WINS 2003 OSCAR PREDICTS ON TIE BREAKER  
      John Slagle and Nelson Slagle both finished with 46 points but John won the tie breaker by guessing 6 
Oscars for Chicago.  Tammy Slagle finished 3rd for the 2nd straight year.  John and Nelson were tied
for the lead all night long until Pianist won for Best Director to move Tammy into the lead.  John and Nelson
won on Best Picture, Chicago as Tammy had Pianist. John and Nelson had the same picks on 12 of 14
categories.
                                                               RESULTS FOR 2000 THROUGH 2008
  20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20- 20- 20-
 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 Total Avg Cum
PREDICTORS PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL PL Places Place PL**
Nikki Barber 12 12  
Anne Marie Benson 5 5  
Carman, Nolie 11
VH Virginia Gaeta Hazlewood 8 6 10 21 21 66 ### 17
DH Dick Hammerstrom 13 11 12 12 15 15 7 2 8 82 ### 9
AH Andrew Hazelwood 6 10 4 9 5 5 18 17 3 5 76 ### 6
Phil Hensley 10 16 9 9 16 14 4 12 90 ### 14
MJ Mike Juarez 14 9 13 11 16 16 10 10 7 3 95 ### 11
Randy Lang 14 14 28 ###
Randy Langs 4 daughters 13 13 ###
Al Manzey 10 23 23 17 18 12 93 ### 20
Luis Melo 15 8 7 7 15 11 9 1 58 ### 8
Cindy Nichols 13 13 8 34 ### 15
Stephanie Poff 20 20 40 ###
Christina Rich 19 19 38 ###  
Jeff Robinette 26 26 8 11 71 ### 19
Bob Scholl 8 9 18 18 14 15 74 ### 16
BS Bonnie Shaffstall 9 12 15 24 24 75 ### 18
Gale Slagle 12 15 22 22 59 ### 21
JeS Jerry Slagle 5 5 5 6 3 3 4 6 2 9 43 ### 3
JoS John Slagle 2 6 1 3 1 1 1 4 17 ### 1
NS Nelson Slagle 4 6 2 5 8 8 2 1 1 5 38 ### 2
Tammy Slagle 11 7 14 14 3 3 13 10 75 ### 7
Jon Stapp 10 10 9 29 ### 12
KS Kristen Stoub 7 1 8 1 4 4 9 16 6 11 60 ### 5
AS Amy Stockard 1 3 7 4 2 2 12 5 16 51 ### 4
Janet Ungaro 25 25 50 ###
MS Melissa Ungaro Slagle 3 4 3 2 17 17 5 12 60 ### 10
SV Scott VanCamp 2 11 11 11 13 10 2 60 ### 13
Andy Corn 6 6 ###
Andrew Coates 19 19 ###
Mary Juarez 14   14 ###
Mickey Hazelwood 15 15 ###
Tina Nguyen 7 7 ###
Jim Slagle 5 5 ###
Wayne Geiser 13 13 ###
**    Need to have predicted 3 places to qualify for cum ranking